Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?
Closes April 12, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
25% / 28%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
28%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the…
2026
11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
39% YES
Mar 13, 2026
Biggest move: +9.0pp
38% → 47%
Mar 16, 2026
Peak probability
47% YES — highest in period
Mar 16, 2026
Current
42% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 16, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 28%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1503856
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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