Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$26K
Bid / Ask
16% / 17%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
17%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1795678
This event has 2 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 27%, April 30, 2026: 17%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~57%.
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by Apr
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
17% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
17% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this