Markets/Paul George: Rebounds O/U 5.5

Paul George: Rebounds O/U 5.5

Market Price

39%YES

61%NO

Vol 24h$1K

Liquidity$8K

Bid / Ask38% / 40%

Spread2.00pp

ClosesApr 26, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Combined YES = 140% — 40pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Paul George: Points O/U 17.5

53%

Paul George: Assists O/U 3.5

48%

Paul George: Rebounds O/U 5.5

39%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Paul George: Rebounds O/U 5.5" at 39% YES / 61% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on April 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-26). "Paul George: Rebounds O/U 5.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 39%, NO 61%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2073300