Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
Closed April 2, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
90% / 95%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
63%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1515632
This event has 5 active outcome markets. Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5: 99%, Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5: 94%, Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5: 84%.
Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
63% YES
Apr 2, 2026
Biggest move: +16.5pp
64% → 81%
Apr 3, 2026
Current
81% YES (+16.5pp recent)
Apr 3, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
-7.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this