Markets/Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:49 AM UTC

Closes January 1, 2028

Polymarket Price

43%YES

57%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$58K

Bid / Ask

41% / 43%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

42%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+12.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

34% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

28% YES — lowest in period

Mar 4, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Mar 6, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 7, 2026

Biggest move: +14.5pp

32% → 47%

Mar 6, 2026

Peak probability

52% YES — highest in period

Mar 6, 2026

Current

46% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 43%99%

Buy YES@ 43¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 57¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 42%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1393319