ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Bulls (-5.5)
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Spread: Bulls (-5.5)

Closes April 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

45%YES
56%NO

Volume 24h

$103K

Liquidity

$93K

Bid / Ask

44% / 45%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

45%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Bulls (-5.5)" at 45% YES / 55% NO. In the last 24 hours, $103K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 45%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Spread: Bulls (-5.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 45%, NO 55%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1812456

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Spread: Bulls (-3.5): 53%, Spread: Bulls (-4.5): 49%, Spread: Bulls (-5.5): 45%.

Spread: Bulls (-3.5)
53%
Spread: Bulls (-4.5)
49%

Spread: Bulls (-5.5)

45%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

46% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

45% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 45%99%
Buy YES@ 45¢
Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 55¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this