ForecastMind
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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)
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Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)

Closed March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

34%YES
66%NO

Volume 24h

$15K

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

24% / 35%

Spread

11.00pp

Expert Signal

34%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)" at 34% YES / 66% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 34%. The bid-ask spread is 11.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 34%, NO 66%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1785185

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5): 100%, Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5): 63%, Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5): 56%.

1H Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)
100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)
63%
Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)
56%

Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)

34%
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)
0%

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-6.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

44% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: -6.5pp

44% → 37%

Mar 31, 2026

Current

37% YES (-6.5pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 34%99%
Buy YES@ 34¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 66¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this