Spread: Hawks (-5.5)
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$9K
Liquidity
$145
Bid / Ask
20% / 28%
Spread
8.00pp
Expert Signal
25%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hawks (-5.5)" at 25% YES / 75% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 25%. The bid-ask spread is 8.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Spread: Hawks (-5.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 25%, NO 75%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1950379
This event has 4 active outcome markets. Spread: Hawks (-2.5): 32%, Spread: Hawks (-4.5): 28%, Spread: Hawks (-5.5): 25%.
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
26% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Current
27% YES (+1.5pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this