ForecastMind
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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Hawks (-6.5)
Share on X

Spread: Hawks (-6.5)

Closed April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

57%YES
43%NO

Volume 24h

$22K

Liquidity

$227K

Bid / Ask

86% / 98%

Spread

12.00pp

Expert Signal

83%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hawks (-6.5)" at 57% YES / 43% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 83%. The bid-ask spread is 12.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Spread: Hawks (-6.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 57%, NO 43%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1933250

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. 1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5): 100%, Spread: Hawks (-7.5): 92%, Spread: Hawks (-10.5): 84%.

1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)
100%
Spread: Hawks (-7.5)
92%
Spread: Hawks (-10.5)
84%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)
68%

Spread: Hawks (-6.5)

57%
Spread: Hawks (-9.5)
50%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+44.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Apr 10, 2026

Biggest move: +22.9pp

56% → 78%

Apr 11, 2026

Current

100% YES (+21.5pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 57%99%
Buy YES@ 57¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 43¢
Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO—+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this