ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Heat (-16.5)
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Spread: Heat (-16.5)

Closes April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

56%YES
44%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$88K

Bid / Ask

55% / 57%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

56%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Heat (-16.5)" at 56% YES / 44% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 56%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Spread: Heat (-16.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 56%, NO 44%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1853215

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Spread: Heat (-16.5): 56%, Spread: Heat (-17.5): 52%.

Spread: Heat (-16.5)

56%
Spread: Heat (-17.5)
52%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.0pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 56%99%
Buy YES@ 56¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 44¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this