Spread: Hornets (-11.5)
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$91K
Bid / Ask
58% / 59%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
59%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hornets (-11.5)" at 59% YES / 41% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 59%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Spread: Hornets (-11.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 59%, NO 41%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1951821
This event has 8 active outcome markets. Spread: Hornets (-7.5): 70%, Spread: Hornets (-8.5): 67%, Spread: Hornets (-10.5): 63%.
Spread: Hornets (-11.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
59% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Current
58% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.9%
EV per $ wagered
-1.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this