Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Hornets (-12.5)
Closed April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$49K
Liquidity
$125K
Bid / Ask
67% / 71%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
65%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hornets (-12.5)" at 56% YES / 44% NO. In the last 24 hours, $49K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 65%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Spread: Hornets (-12.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 56%, NO 44%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1952738
This event has 9 active outcome markets. Spread: Hornets (-7.5): 81%, Spread: Hornets (-8.5): 73%, Spread: Hornets (-10.5): 69%.
Spread: Hornets (-12.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
55% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Biggest move: +38.0pp
62% → 100%
Apr 13, 2026
Peak probability
100% YES — highest in period
Apr 13, 2026
Current
100% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.9%
EV per $ wagered
-1.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this