⊘

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

Share on X

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

Data as of Mar 26, 2026, 07:37 PM UTC

Closed March 26, 2026

Polymarket Price

92%YES

9%NO

Volume 24h

$200K

Liquidity

$131

Bid / Ask

86% / 95%

Spread

8.90pp

Expert Signal

92%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

Full event →

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5

100%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5

100%

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

97%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets

NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+27.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

35% YES

Mar 26, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

81%

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: +46.0pp

35% → 81%

Mar 26, 2026

Peak probability

81% YES — highest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Current

62% YES (-18.5pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 92%99%

Buy YES@ 92¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly5.9%

½ Kelly2.9%

Buy NO@ 8¢

-5.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 5.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)" at 92% YES / 8% NO. In the last 24 hours, $200K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 92%. The bid-ask spread is 8.90 percentage points. The market closes on March 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 92%, NO 8%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1711900

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.