ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Spurs (-12.5)
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Spread: Spurs (-12.5)

Closes April 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

56%YES
45%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$84K

Bid / Ask

55% / 56%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

56%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Spurs (-12.5)" at 56% YES / 44% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 56%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Spread: Spurs (-12.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 56%, NO 44%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1812838

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. Spread: Spurs (-11.5): 59%, Spread: Spurs (-12.5): 56%, Spread: Spurs (-13.5): 52%.

Spread: Spurs (-11.5)
59%

Spread: Spurs (-12.5)

56%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5)
52%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5)
48%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

56% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 56%99%
Buy YES@ 56¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%
½ Kelly0.6%
Buy NO@ 44¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this