ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Suns (-4.5)
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Spread: Suns (-4.5)

Closes April 15, 2026

Polymarket Price

45%YES
56%NO

Volume 24h

$19K

Liquidity

$167K

Bid / Ask

44% / 45%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

45%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Suns (-4.5)" at 45% YES / 55% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 45%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Spread: Suns (-4.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 45%, NO 55%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1969378

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Spread: Suns (-3.5): 49%, 1H Spread: Suns (-2.5): 49%, Spread: Suns (-4.5): 45%.

Spread: Suns (-3.5)
49%
1H Spread: Suns (-2.5)
49%

Spread: Suns (-4.5)

45%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

45% YES

Apr 14, 2026

Current

45% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 45%99%
Buy YES@ 45¢
Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 55¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this