Markets/Spread: Thunder (-11.5)

Spread: Thunder (-11.5)

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 09:47 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

53%YES

48%NO

Volume 24h

$11K

Liquidity

$115K

Bid / Ask

51% / 53%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

53%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Event Distribution

Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

Full event →

Spread: Thunder (-11.5)

53%

1H Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

50%

Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

48%

Spread: Thunder (-13.5)

44%

Spread: Thunder (-14.5)

41%

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

52% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

52% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 53%99%

Buy YES@ 53¢

Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 48¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Thunder (-11.5)" at 53% YES / 47% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 53%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Spread: Thunder (-11.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 53%, NO 47%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1792129

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.