Markets/Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 07:02 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

48%YES

52%NO

Volume 24h

$48K

Liquidity

$29K

Bid / Ask

46% / 47%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

48%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Event Distribution

Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

Full event →

Spread: Thunder (-11.5)

52%

1H Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

50%

Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

48%

Spread: Thunder (-13.5)

44%

Spread: Thunder (-14.5)

42%

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

49% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 48%99%

Buy YES@ 48¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 52¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Thunder (-12.5)" at 48% YES / 52% NO. In the last 24 hours, $48K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 48%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Spread: Thunder (-12.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 48%, NO 52%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1787549

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.