ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Warriors (-4.5)
Share on X

Spread: Warriors (-4.5)

Closed April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

43%YES
57%NO

Volume 24h

$94K

Liquidity

$62K

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Warriors (-4.5)" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $94K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Spread: Warriors (-4.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1924073

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. Spread: Warriors (-4.5): 43%, Spread: Warriors (-2.5): 0%, Spread: Warriors (-5.5): 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~57%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-49.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Apr 9, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Apr 9, 2026

Biggest move: -27.5pp

28% → 1%

Apr 10, 2026

Current

0% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 43%99%
Buy YES@ 43¢
Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 57¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this