Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?
Closes April 15, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.0pp above current market price; market at 12% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +0.6% ↑, VIX +2.1% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$15K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
12% / 13%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1912775
This event has 4 active outcome markets. April 21, 2026: 28%, April 18, 2026: 23%, April 14, 2026: 18%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~20%.
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 20
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
21% YES
Apr 9, 2026
Biggest move: -5.0pp
17% → 12%
Apr 9, 2026
Current
12% YES (-5.0pp recent)
Apr 9, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this