Markets/US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Data as of Apr 13, 2026, 04:32 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

50%FIS

−1ppvs market 51%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -0.9pp below current market price; market at 51% may be overpriced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

MacroVIX -1.3% ↓, Gold +0.7% ↑

-0.7pp

Live compute04:32 AM

Polymarket Price

51%YES

49%NO

Volume 24h

$13K

Liquidity

$38K

Bid / Ask

50% / 52%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

51%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.6pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 51%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/665325

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?: 51%, June 30: 37%, April 30: 14%.