Markets/US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Data as of Apr 13, 2026, 04:35 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

13%FIS

−1ppvs market 14%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -0.9pp below current market price; market at 14% may be overpriced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

MacroVIX -1.3% ↓, Gold +0.7% ↑

-0.7pp

Live compute04:35 AM

Polymarket Price

14%YES

86%NO

Volume 24h

$129K

Liquidity

$31K

Bid / Ask

14% / 14%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+2.0pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $129K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1543487

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?: 51%, June 30: 37%, April 30: 14%.