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Markets/US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?
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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?

4%YES
96%NO
Vol 24h$50K
Liquidity$137K
Bid / Ask4% / 5%
Spread0.30pp
ClosesApr 30, 2026

FM Estimate

2%

Market Price

4%
↑ Overpriced 2.1pp
Macro fundamentals-3.8pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
medium confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. December 31: 41%, May 31: 28%, April 30: 4%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~27%.

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

-4.1pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $50K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30pp. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-17). "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2006982