Markets/US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?

Market Price

43%YES

57%NO

FM Estimate

46%

Vol 24h$3K

Liquidity$31K

Bid / Ask41% / 44%

Spread3.00pp

ClosesApr 29, 2026

Macro fundamentals+1.5pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets25 markets

25 deadline markets. Combined YES = 535% — 435pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

by May 15, 2026

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026

67%