US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$886K

Liquidity$160K

Bid / Ask0% / 1%

Spread0.10pp

ClosedApr 24, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets7 markets

7 deadline markets. Market implies ~60% chance none resolve YES.

by April 30, 2026

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026