Markets/US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Data as of Apr 14, 2026, 07:58 PM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Medium confidence · 2 signals

80%FIS

−3ppvs market 83%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -2.6pp below current market price; market at 83% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.9% ↓, VIX -4.5% ↓, Gold +0.5% ↑.

Signal breakdown

MacroOil -1.9% ↓, VIX -4.5% ↓, Gold +0.5% ↑

-4.9pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute01:58 PM

Polymarket Price

83%YES

17%NO

Volume 24h

$27K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

82% / 85%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

83%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?" at 83% YES / 17% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 83%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 83%, NO 17%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1959320

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 83%, April 22, 2026: 79%, April 21, 2026: 69%.