Markets/US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Market Price

14%YES

86%NO

FM Estimate

13%

Vol 24h$38K

Liquidity$80K

Bid / Ask14% / 15%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesMay 15, 2026

Historical patterns-1.0pp

Macro fundamentals-1.2pp

low confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Market implies ~16% chance none resolve YES.

by June 30, 2026

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026

43%