Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$28K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
99% / 100%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $28K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1116701
This event has 2 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 100%, December 31, 2026: 51%.
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
100% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
100% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this