Markets/Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Market Price

51%YES

49%NO

FM Estimate

49%

Vol 24h$916

Liquidity$5K

Bid / Ask49% / 53%

Spread4.00pp

ClosesAug 4, 2026

Macro fundamentals-3.1pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets6 markets

6 deadline markets. Combined YES = 102% — 2pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Abdul El-Sayed

Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Prim

51%

Mallory McMorrow

Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Pr

35%

Haley Stevens

Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Prima

16%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

51%anchor

PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $916 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 51%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00pp. The market closes on August 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/599305