Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Closes June 21, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$13K
Liquidity
$45K
Bid / Ask
17% / 18%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
18%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential…
2026
23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
29% YES
Mar 5, 2026
Trough probability
10% YES — lowest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Biggest move: -9.5pp
19% → 10%
Mar 17, 2026
Peak probability
35% YES — highest in period
Mar 7, 2026
Current
18% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 20, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 21, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569366
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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