Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Closes March 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$23K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
2% / 2%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish…
2026
62 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Mar 13, 2026
Current
2% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+21.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $23K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1364012
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