Will Alex De Paula be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
Closes June 16, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$7K
Bid / Ask
1% / 2%
Spread
1.80pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Alex De Paula be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.80 percentage points. The market closes on June 16, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Alex De Paula be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/708772
This event has 5 active outcome markets. Chuck Smith be the Republican nominee for Sen: 31%, Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate : 8%, Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for S: 7%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~52%.
Alex De Paula be the Republican nominee for Senate in V
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Current
2% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+33.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this