Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
18% / 18%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
18%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential…
2026
23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
20% YES
Mar 10, 2026
Trough probability
13% YES — lowest in period
Mar 13, 2026
Current
16% YES (-0.7pp recent)
Mar 19, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/947273
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Venue Divergence
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Event Cluster
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