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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:27 AM UTC

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$543K

Liquidity

$111K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

4%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

March

above $62,000 on March 21?

above $60,000 on March 21?

above $64,000 on March 21?

above $66,000 on March 21?

above $62,000 on March 22?

above $64,000 on March 22?

above $68,000 on March 21?

above $68,000 on March 22?

above $70,000 on March 21?

above $70,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 22?

$80,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 21?

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?

4%

$85,000 in March?

$72,000 on March 20?

above $74,000 on March 22?

$73,000 on March 20?

$74,000 on March 20?

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?

above $76,000 on March 22?

$90,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?

above $78,000 on March 22?

$95,000 in March?

above $74,000 on March 21?

$100,000 in March?

$110,000 in March?

$105,000 in March?

above $80,000 on March 22?

$150,000 in March?

above $82,000 on March 22?

above $76,000 on March 21?

$75,000 on March 20?

above $80,000 on March 21?

above $78,000 on March 21?

$76,000 on March 20?

$78,000 on March 20?

$77,000 on March 20?

41 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

-31.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

35% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

3% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Biggest move: -11.5pp

29% → 18%

Mar 2, 2026

Current

4% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

-10.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly10.1%

½ Kelly5.1%

Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 10.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $543K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1473075

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Forecaster Signals

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

Event Cluster

All markets about the same event across venues.

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