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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

12%YES

89%NO

Volume 24h

$150K

Liquidity

$113K

Bid / Ask

11% / 12%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

March

above $62,000 on March 21?

above $60,000 on March 21?

above $64,000 on March 21?

above $66,000 on March 21?

above $62,000 on March 22?

above $64,000 on March 22?

above $68,000 on March 21?

above $68,000 on March 22?

above $70,000 on March 21?

above $70,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 22?

$80,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?

12%

above $72,000 on March 21?

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?

$85,000 in March?

$72,000 on March 20?

above $74,000 on March 22?

$73,000 on March 20?

$74,000 on March 20?

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?

above $76,000 on March 22?

$90,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?

above $78,000 on March 22?

$95,000 in March?

above $74,000 on March 21?

$100,000 in March?

$110,000 in March?

$105,000 in March?

above $80,000 on March 22?

$150,000 in March?

above $82,000 on March 22?

above $76,000 on March 21?

$75,000 on March 20?

above $80,000 on March 21?

above $78,000 on March 21?

$76,000 on March 20?

$78,000 on March 20?

$77,000 on March 20?

41 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

-49.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

62% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

9% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 1, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 2, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 3, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

54%

Mar 8, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 9, 2026

Biggest move: -21.0pp

42% → 21%

Mar 4, 2026

Current

13% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 12%99%

Buy YES@ 12¢

Edge

+4.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 89¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $150K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1473074

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

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Event Cluster

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