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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$64K

Liquidity

$28K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

5%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-4.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

10% YES

Mar 16, 2026

Biggest move: -14.5pp

30% → 16%

Mar 19, 2026

Peak probability

37% YES — highest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Current

6% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢
Edge

+11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+11.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $64K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1603561