Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 21?

Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 21?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 11:49 PM UTC

Closes March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$48K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

3% / 4%

Spread

0.90pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?

March

Full event →

21 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-46.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

51% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Trough probability

2% YES — lowest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

Mar 21, 2026

Biggest move: -46.5pp

51% → 4%

Mar 21, 2026

Current

4% YES (+0.6pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-7.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly7.0%

½ Kelly3.5%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 7.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 21?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $48K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 21?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1668604