Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 11?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +0.8pp above current market price; market at 3% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.2% ↑, ETH +0.6% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$18K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
3% / 4%
Spread
0.90pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 11?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 11?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1943721
This event has 24 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?: 28%, Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on April 11?: 15%, Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?: 12%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~28%.
Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 11?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
5% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Current
3% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-7.7%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this