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Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 20?
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Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 20?

Closes March 21, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$16K

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

0% / 3%

Spread

2.90pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

March

Full event →
above $62,000 on March 21?
100%
above $60,000 on March 21?
100%
above $64,000 on March 21?
100%
above $66,000 on March 21?
100%
above $62,000 on March 22?
100%
above $64,000 on March 22?
99%
above $68,000 on March 21?
97%
above $68,000 on March 22?
96%
above $70,000 on March 21?
83%
above $70,000 on March 22?
70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
38%
above $72,000 on March 22?
18%
$80,000 in March?
16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
12%
above $72,000 on March 21?
6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
4%
$85,000 in March?
3%
$72,000 on March 20?
3%
above $74,000 on March 22?
2%
$73,000 on March 20?
2%
$74,000 on March 20?
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
1%
above $76,000 on March 22?
1%
$90,000 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?
1%
above $78,000 on March 22?
1%
$95,000 in March?
1%
above $74,000 on March 21?
0%
$100,000 in March?
0%
$110,000 in March?
0%
$105,000 in March?
0%
above $80,000 on March 22?
0%
$150,000 in March?
0%
above $82,000 on March 22?
0%
above $76,000 on March 21?
0%
$75,000 on March 20?
0%
above $80,000 on March 21?
0%
above $78,000 on March 21?
0%
$76,000 on March 20?
0%
$78,000 on March 20?
0%
$77,000 on March 20?
0%

41 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-4.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Mar 20, 2026

Current

0% YES (-0.3pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢
Edge

+29.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+29.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 20?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 2.90 percentage points. The market closes on March 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 20?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1658756

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