Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 22?

Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 22?

Market Price

5%YES

95%NO

FM Estimate

12%

Gap Signal

↑Underpriced

6.4pp

Vol 24h$36K

Liquidity$12K

Bid / Ask2% / 6%

Spread4.10pp

ClosesApr 23, 2026

Macro fundamentals+6.4pp

low confidence · 1 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets22 markets

This event has 22 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 96%, Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?: 81%, Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26?: 78%.

Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?

96%

Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?

81%

Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 22?

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-1.3pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 22?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $36K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 4.10pp. The market closes on April 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-22). "Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2049215