Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$8K
Liquidity
$357
Bid / Ask
18% / 36%
Spread
18.00pp
Expert Signal
52%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 33% YES / 67% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 52%. The bid-ask spread is 18.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 33%, NO 67%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/902004
This event has 46 active outcome markets. Iraq qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: 72%, Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: 41%, Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: 33%.
Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.5%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this