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Markets/Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
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Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

33%YES
68%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$357

Bid / Ask

18% / 36%

Spread

18.00pp

Expert Signal

52%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 33% YES / 67% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 52%. The bid-ask spread is 18.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 33%, NO 67%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/902004

Outcome Markets46 markets

This event has 46 active outcome markets. Iraq qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: 72%, Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: 41%, Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: 33%.

Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

33%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 33%99%
Buy YES@ 33¢
Edge

+1.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 68¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this