ForecastMind
Markets/Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
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Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

Closes June 16, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

1% / 2%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+42.9pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 16, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/708764

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for S: 34%, Chuck Smith be the Republican nominee for Sen: 31%, David Williams be the Republican nominee for : 22%.

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-28.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly28.6%
½ Kelly14.3%
Buy NO+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 28.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this