Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Closes March 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
38% / 40%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
39%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish…
2026
62 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
45% YES
Mar 13, 2026
Current
45% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?" at 39% YES / 61% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 39%, NO 61%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1364011
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Venue Divergence
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