ForecastMind
Markets/Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Share on X

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

19%YES
81%NO
Vol 24h$38K
Liquidity$238K
Bid / Ask18% / 19%
Spread1.00pp
ClosesDec 31, 2027

FM Estimate

18%

Market Price

19%
↑ Overpriced 0.8pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
Macro fundamentals-0.5pp
low confidence · 2 signals
Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. December 31, 2027: 19%, end of 2026: 9%, September 30, 2026: 7%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~59%.

China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

19%
China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
9%
China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
7%
China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
4%
China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
3%

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp
Cross-Venue Intelligence3 venues
VenueYES %vs Poly
Polymarket19%anchor
Manifold——
Manifold——

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $38K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1633611