Markets/Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:27 AM UTC

Closes April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$367K

Liquidity

$114K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Current

4% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

Edge

+6.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+6.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $367K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/658945