Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
75% / 76%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
76%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Ray McAdam win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
2026
12 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
76% YES
Mar 28, 2026
Current
76% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 28, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-2.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?" at 76% YES / 24% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 76%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 76%, NO 24%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1400463
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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