Markets/Will Donald Trump visit China on May 28, 2026?

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 28, 2026?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$3K

Liquidity$8K

Bid / Ask0% / 1%

Spread0.40pp

ClosesMay 31, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market holds significance as it reflects a 0% probability of a future diplomatic engagement. The collective low probabilities across related markets, such as a 0% chance of a March discussion with Xi Jinping, suggest a consistently low expectation of direct interaction between Trump and Chinese leadership.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets35 markets

35 deadline markets. Combined YES = 376% — 276pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

by June 30

Trump visit China by June 30

96%

by May 31

Trump visit China by May 31

92%

Donald Trump visit China on May 28, 2026?

Donald Trump visit China on May 28, 2026

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.1pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump visit China on May 28, 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40pp. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Will Donald Trump visit China on May 28, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2099631