Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Closes March 31, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$34K
Liquidity
$52K
Bid / Ask
55% / 56%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
56%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
June
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
67% YES
Mar 16, 2026
Trough probability
47% YES — lowest in period
Mar 22, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 22, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
50%
Mar 23, 2026
Biggest move: +14.5pp
62% → 76%
Mar 17, 2026
Peak probability
78% YES — highest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Current
56% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump visit China by May 31?" at 56% YES / 44% NO. In the last 24 hours, $34K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 56%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Trump visit China by May 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 56%, NO 44%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1611527
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.