Markets/Will Donald Trump visit China on May 5, 2026?

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 5, 2026?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$3K

Liquidity$7K

ClosesMay 31, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market is significant because the current 0% YES price suggests a near-zero probability of Donald Trump visiting China on May 5, 2026, a prediction that remains static despite broad market fluctuations and a stable USD/CNY exchange rate. The consensus reflected by the 0% price on this specific geopolitical event warrants scrutiny given the potential for unexpected diplomatic developments.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets35 markets

35 deadline markets. Combined YES = 478% — 378pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

by June 30

Trump visit China by June 30

96%

Donald Trump visit China in 2026?

Donald Trump visit China in 2026

95%

Donald Trump visit China on May 5, 2026?

Donald Trump visit China on May 5, 2026

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump visit China on May 5, 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-03). "Will Donald Trump visit China on May 5, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2099608