Markets/Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?

Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:31 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

89%YES

12%NO

Volume 24h

$125

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

88% / 89%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

89%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

91% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Trough probability

85% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Biggest move: -5.0pp

91% → 86%

Mar 8, 2026

Current

89% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 89%99%

Buy YES@ 89¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.3%

½ Kelly2.2%

Buy NO@ 12¢

-4.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?" at 89% YES / 11% NO. In the last 24 hours, $125 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 89%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 89%, NO 11%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/676937