Markets/Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

17%YES

83%NO

Volume 24h

$57K

Liquidity

$44K

Bid / Ask

16% / 18%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

17%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-10.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

27% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Trough probability

8% YES — lowest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Biggest move: -18.0pp

27% → 9%

Mar 10, 2026

Current

17% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 17%99%

Buy YES@ 17¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 83¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $57K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1542953